January 9, 2012

BETHESDA, MD – With the holiday season over, which manufacturers are now seeing a surge in demand in the smart phone market?

A new survey of 4,000 North American consumers by ChangeWave Research - a service of 451 Research - has found explosive momentum for Apple and Samsung as the new year gets underway.

The late December survey looked at smart phone demand trends going forward, and finds Apple iPhone demand remains incredibly strong more than two months after the iPhone 4S release.

Among respondents planning to buy a new smart phone in the next 90 days, better than one-in-two (54%; down 11-pts) say they'll get an iPhone.

Apple has never dominated smart phone planned buying to this extent more than two months after a major new release.

The other company burning up the competition is Samsung (13%), which has registered a huge 8-pt surge in planned buying since the previous ChangeWave survey. This represents nearly a tripling of consumer interest in Samsung phones just since fall 2011.

In contrast to Apple's single phone approach, Samsung has a broad portfolio of Android phones that it continues to expand and refresh, including its flagship Galaxy line.

The just released Galaxy Nexus – the first U.S. 4G phone running Android's new 4.0 operating system (Ice Cream Sandwich) – appears to be a major driving force behind the leap in Samsung planned buying. Samsung's 4.0 OS update to some of its most popular models during the 1st Quarter is also heightening consumer interest.

Outlook for Other Manufacturers

Research in Motion (2%) has fallen another 1-pt in planned buying to its lowest level ever in a ChangeWave survey. Since it peaked back in September 2008, Research in Motion planned buying has fallen in 9 of the past 12 ChangeWave surveys.

After a precipitous drop in market share over the previous two quarters, Motorola (7%) is again showing some signs of momentum – having experienced a 2-pt uptick in planned buying.

In contrast, HTC (3%; down 3-pts) continues its multi-quarter decline. Now in fourth place in terms of future planned buying, the latest ChangeWave survey results present further negative news for the Taiwan manufacturer, which recently cut its revenue guidance.

Customer Satisfaction

As we've seen in previous ChangeWave surveys, a key reason for the Apple iPhone's extraordinary demand has to do with its industry leading customer satisfaction rating. In the current survey, three-in-four iPhone owners (75%) say they're Very Satisfied with their smart phone.

Percentage of Respondents Very Satisfied with their Smart Phone – By Manufacturer

Samsung and HTC are now in a dead heat for second place, each of them with 47% of their customers saying they are Very Satisfied with their smart phones. Right behind them in third place is Motorola (45%).

RIM (22%) ranks dead last in the all-important satisfaction sweepstakes – down 2-pts from September, again to its lowest level ever in a ChangeWave survey.

The following chart compares the slide in RIM's Very Satisfied rating over the past four-and-a-half years with that of the Apple iPhone, which has consistently maintained the industry's highest customer satisfaction rating.

Operating Systems. We also took a look at OS customer satisfaction based upon the operating system consumers have on their smart phones. Apple remains the clear leader here - with three-out-of-four customers (75%) using the Apple iOS saying they are Very Satisfied.

The Android OS ranks second in consumer satisfaction, with nearly half (47%) of its users saying they're Very Satisfied.

Windows OS (32%) – including the newer Windows Phone and the older Windows Mobile – has jumped 8-pts since our previous survey, but still trails the leaders, though it is well ahead of the Very Satisfied rating for the RIM OS (22%).

Note, however, there is a substantial difference between the higher Very Satisfied rating for Windows Phone OS (55%) and the much lower rating for the older Windows Mobile OS (12%). Nonetheless, the high Windows Phone rating has yet to produce a sustained momentum boost for Microsoft in terms of buyer preferences.

The complete ChangeWave Consumer Smart Phone Demand Report is available here.

**Note that ChangeWave also offers this report as part of a quarterly subscription series available for purchase.

About ChangeWave Research
ChangeWave Research, a service of 451 Research, is a survey research firm that identifies and quantifies change in corporate buying & business trends, telecom trends, and consumer spending & electronics trends. This is accomplished through a weekly series of large sample surveys to its network of 25,000 accredited business and technology professionals, and early-adopter consumers, working in more than 20 industries. To learn more visit www.changewaveresearch.com.

About 451 Research
451 Research, a division of leading global analyst and data company The 451 Group, is focused on the business of enterprise IT innovation. Clients of 451 Research – at end-user, service-provider, vendor, and investor organizations – rely on 451 Research's insight through a range of syndicated research and advisory services to support both strategic and tactical decision-making. For additional information on 451 Research, go to: 451research.com.